One day to the start - what's coming up?!?

As the clock counts down to the start of the 14th edition of The Ocean Race the weather conditions ahead are becoming an increasingly popular topic of conversation around the dockside here in Alicante.

The consensus in recent days has been that Leg 1 will be a race of two halves where the second part is the easier to predict. Once through The Strait of Gibraltar the ride south to Cabo Verde will be fast thanks to a high pressure system centred over the Azores that is feeding the northerly trade winds.

The trickier part to predict is the opening stage of the leg from the start to the exit of the Mediterranean where the weather models and the forecasts have been dancing around over recent days.

Current predictions show a weather front working its way south over Alicante during the start period leading to subtly different conditions for the VO65 and IMOCA starts.

For the VO65s the breeze is expected to be 9-16knots from the WSW and while the strength remains broadly the same, the direction swings to NW for the IMOCA fleet.

But the big change looks set to come on Monday when the wind speed increases to 25-30knots with possible gusts to 45knots and 4-5m waves creating a difficult upwind conditions for the fleet as they head towards the Strait of Gibraltar.

At just over 300 nautical miles this opening stage of the leg could see the fleet arriving at the exit to the Mediterranean by Monday evening, or overnight Monday night. Once through and given the current forecast the sleigh ride south looks fast but straightforward.

So, what does this mean tactically for the fleet? Four time Ocean Race veteran and past winner (Ericsson 4 in 2008-09) navigator Jules Salter explains some of the considerations for the teams.

Stage 1: The Mediterranean

The first challenge for the teams is how best to negotiate the Alboran Sea which forms the western section of the Mediterranean between Spain's Iberian Peninsula and North Africa. Previous races have seen the fleets set off much earlier, in late October or early November, but this time the race is starting in mid-winter rather than late Autumn and that could make a big difference to the conditions they encounter.

Typically, the strong westerlies come into play when there is a dominant high pressure over northern Europe. They can be quite ferocious as they rip across the Med, and that could make for a brutal first few days for The Ocean Race crews as they try to get into an early on board rhythm.

In the event that conditions get light it will be important to remember that in mid-January we are only a month past the shortest day and the land has generally cooled down, so there is not likely to be very much chance of significant thermal sea breezes during the day. The seawater will still be warm, however, and that can give opportunities for some nice night time breezes that can be taken advantage of offshore.

In the light wind scenario there is always the chance of someone finding their own little patch of breeze that might enable them to break away from the fleet and be first to take on the Gibraltar Strait.

Stage 2: Gibraltar Strait

When it comes to negotiating the Gibraltar Strait, the wind often likes to blow hard either from the west or the east, and there are always strong currents there (up to three or four knots I have seen, at times) so the sea state can be really horrible. Those currents can make it really difficult to get through there in light winds too.

Then there are the masses of commercial shipping that pass through from the Atlantic to the Med and need to be avoided as well as staying out of the race-mandated south and west exclusion zones.

(We'll have the rest of Jules Salter's leg one analysis after the start).

How to watch The Ocean Race Leg 1 start:

VO65 fleet start: 1400 CET / 1300 GMT - Eurosport Player / Discovery+ platform

IMOCA fleet start: 1600 CET / 1500 GMT - Eurosport / Eurosport Player / Discovery+ platform (check local listings for local timings as Eurosport will have a 30 minute pre-show at 1530 CET in many territories)

Please note that both race starts from Alicante will also be embedded for international viewing on www.theoceanrace.com homepage and on https://www.youtube.com/Eurosport/streams

Tracker

Positions for the fleet can be also followed from the start and throughout the race via the race tracker at www.theoceanrace.com